Several explorations on how to construct an early warning system for local government debt risk in China.

This paper aims to explore several ways to construct a scientific and comprehensive early warning system (EWS) for local government debt risk in China. In order to achieve this goal, this paper studies the local government debt risk from multiple perspectives, i.e., individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk. Firstly, taking China's 30 provinces over the period of 2010~ 2018 as a sample, this paper establishes early warning indicators for individual risk of local government debt, and uses the network model to establish early warning indicators for contagion risk of local government debt. Then, this paper applies the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation (CRITIC) method and coefficient of variation method to obtain the proxy variable Ⅰ, which combines the above two risks. Secondly, based on the proxy variable Ⅰ, both the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and coefficient of variation method are used to obtain the proxy variable Ⅱ, which comprehensively considers the individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk of local government debt. Finally, machine learning algorithms are adopted to generalize the EWS designed in this paper. The results show that: (1) From different perspectives of local government debt risk, the list of provinces that require early warning is different; (2) The support vector machines can well generalize our EWS.

EBP-Colombia and the bioeconomy: Genomics in the service of biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.

The 2016 Peace Agreement has increased access to Colombia's unique ecosystems, which remain understudied and increasingly under threat. The Colombian government has recently announced its National Bioeconomic Strategy (NBS), founded on the sustainable characterization, management, and conservation of the nation's biodiversity as a means to achieve sustainability and peace. Molecular tools will accelerate such endeavors, but capacity remains limited in Colombia. The Earth Biogenome Project's (EBP) objective is to characterize the genomes of all eukaryotic life on Earth through networks of partner institutions focused on sequencing either specific taxa or eukaryotic communities at regional or national scales. Colombia's immense biodiversity and emerging network of stakeholders have inspired the creation of the national partnership "EBP-Colombia." Here, we discuss how this Colombian-driven collaboration between government, academia, and the private sector is integrating research with sustainable, environmentally focused strategies to develop Colombia's postconflict bioeconomy and conserve biological and cultural diversity. EBP-Colombia will accelerate the uptake of technology and promote partnership and exchange of knowledge among Colombian stakeholders and the EBP's global network of experts; assist with conservation strategies to preserve Colombia's vast biological wealth; and promote innovative approaches among public and private institutions in sectors such as agriculture, tourism, recycling, and medicine. EBP-Colombia can thus support Colombia's NBS with the objective of sustainable and inclusive development to address the many social, environmental, and economic challenges, including conflict, inequality, poverty, and low agricultural productivity, and so, offer an alternative model for economic development that similarly placed countries can adopt.

Green credit, environmental protection investment and debt financing for heavily polluting enterprises.

The paper takes listed companies in the heavily polluting industry from 2009-2017 as a research sample to explore whether heavy pollution enterprises' environmental protection investment helps their debt financing under the institutional background of China's continuous implementation of green credit policy. It is found that, in general, the environmental protection investment of heavy pollution enterprises helps them to obtain more and relatively long-term new loans; in terms of time, this effect is more evident after the release of China's Green Credit Guidelines in 2012; in addition, the level of regional environmental pollution, the level of financial development and the green fiscal policy also have a moderating effect on this. This paper enriches the study of the economic consequences of corporate environmental protection investment from the perspective of debt financing. It examines the effects of the implementation of China's green credit policy and other institutional factors to provide a reference for the heavy pollution enterprises' environmental protection investment and the implementation of green credit policy by local governments in China.

Poverty reduction in rural China: Does the digital finance matter?

As digital finance is widely spread and applied in China, this new format of financial technology could become a new way to reduce poverty in rural areas. By matching digital financial indexes of the prefectural-level cities with microdata on rural households from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2017, we find that digital finance significantly suppresses absolute poverty and relative poverty among rural households in China, which is supported by a series of robustness tests, such as the instrumental variable approach, using alternative specifications, and excluding extreme observations. Additionally, we provide evidence that the poverty reduction effect of digital finance is likely to be explained by alleviating credit constraints and information constraints, broadening social networks, and promoting entrepreneurship. Our findings further complement the research field on financial poverty reduction and offer insights for the development of public financial policies of poverty reduction in other countries, especially in some developing countries.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050.

BACKGROUND: The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. FINDINGS: In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. INTERPRETATION: Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Chronic disease stigma, skepticism of the health system, and socio-economic fragility: Qualitative assessment of factors impacting receptiveness to group medical visits and microfinance for non-communicable disease care in rural Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of mortality in the world, and innovative approaches to NCD care delivery are being actively developed and evaluated. Combining the group-based experience of microfinance and group medical visits is a novel approach to NCD care delivery. However, the contextual factors, facilitators, and barriers impacting wide-scale implementation of these approaches within a low- and middle-income country setting are not well known. METHODS: Two types of qualitative group discussion were conducted: 1) mabaraza (singular, baraza), a traditional East African community gathering used to discuss and exchange information in large group settings; and 2) focus group discussions (FGDs) among rural clinicians, community health workers, microfinance group members, and patients with NCDs. Trained research staff members led the discussions using structured question guides. Content analysis was performed with NVivo using deductive and inductive codes that were then grouped into themes. RESULTS: We conducted 5 mabaraza and 16 FGDs. A total of 205 individuals (113 men and 92 women) participated in the mabaraza, while 162 individuals (57 men and 105 women) participated in the FGDs. In the context of poverty and previous experiences with the health system, participants described challenges to NCD care across three themes: 1) stigma of chronic disease, 2) earned skepticism of the health system, and 3) socio-economic fragility. However, they also outlined windows of opportunity and facilitators of group medical visits and microfinance to address those challenges. DISCUSSION: Our qualitative study revealed actionable factors that could impact the success of implementation of group medical visits and microfinance initiatives for NCD care. While several challenges were highlighted, participants also described opportunities to address and mitigate the impact of these factors. We anticipate that our approach and analysis provides new insights and methodological techniques that will be relevant to other low-resource settings worldwide.

Stillbirth rates, service outcomes and costs of implementing NHS England's Saving Babies' Lives care bundle in maternity units in England: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess implementation of the Saving Babies Lives (SBL) Care Bundle, a collection of practice recommendations in four key areas, to reduce stillbirth in England. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of 463,630 births in 19 NHS Trusts in England using routinely collected electronic data supplemented with case note audit (n = 1,658), and surveys of service users (n = 2,085) and health care professionals (n = 1,064). The primary outcome was stillbirth rate. Outcome rates two years before and after the nominal SBL implementation date were derived as a measure of change over the implementation period. Data were collected on secondary outcomes and process outcomes which reflected implementation of the SBL care bundle. RESULTS: The total stillbirth rate, declined from 4.2 to 3.4 per 1,000 births between the two time points (adjusted Relative Risk (aRR) 0.80, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) 0.70 to 0.91, P<0.001). There was a contemporaneous increase in induction of labour (aRR 1.20 (95%CI 1.18-1.21), p<0.001) and emergency Caesarean section (aRR 1.10 (95%CI 1.07-1.12), p<0.001). The number of ultrasound scans performed (aRR 1.25 (95%CI 1.21-1.28), p<0.001) and the proportion of small for gestational age infants detected (aRR 1.59 (95%CI 1.32-1.92), p<0.001) also increased. Organisations reporting higher levels of implementation had improvements in process measures in all elements of the care bundle. An economic analysis estimated the cost of implementing the care bundle at ~£140 per birth. However, neither the costs nor changes in outcomes could be definitively attributed to implementation of the SBL care bundle. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the SBL care bundle increased over time in the majority of sites. Implementation was associated with improvements in process outcomes. The reduction in stillbirth rates in participating sites exceeded that reported nationally in the same timeframe. The intervention should be refined to identify women who are most likely to benefit and minimise unwarranted intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered on (NCT03231007); www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Why the Economic Aspects of Healthcare are not Unique.

Frequent claims suggest that healthcare and its production are not only different from other goods, but that they differ to such an extent that healthcare should be viewed as unique. Various features of healthcare, such as the lack of a perfect market and the existence of information asymmetry, are cited as evidence of this claim. However, such a view results from unduly emphasising the characteristics of healthcare as being atypical. This article redresses this imbalance by taking an alternative approach and examines the ways in which the economic aspects of healthcare are similar to those of other goods. It was found that the differential aspects are less distinctive than claimed and the economic aspects of healthcare are not unique.

National Institutes of Health Research Plan on Rehabilitation: Analysis and Progress.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize the progress toward the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Research Plan on Rehabilitation goals and the methods by which tracking occurred. DESIGN: Each grant award was manually coded by NIH staff for research plan goals, type of science categories (eg, basic, applied, infrastructure, etc), and if applicable, training, and then validated by NIH institute and center (IC) experts. Data for years 2015 through 2017 were used to develop a coding algorithm to automatically code grants in 2018 for validation by NIH IC experts. Additional data for all years (2015-2018) were also analyzed to track changes and progress. SETTING: The research utilized administrative data from NIH Reporter and internal NIH databases. PARTICIPANTS: The data sample included research grants and programs funded from fiscal years 2015 through 2018. The year 2015 was considered a baseline year as the research plan was published in 2016. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measures were substantial growth in NIH funding and numbers of awards for rehabilitation research, across most research plan goals and types of science, as well as validation of an automatic algorithm for coding grants. RESULTS: Number of grants, funding dollars, funding mechanisms, patent data, scientific influence and translational science, research plan goals, and type of science categories were tracked across years (2015-2018). Algorithm validation is presented for 2018 data. CONCLUSIONS: NIH advanced the goals stated in the Research Plan on Rehabilitation, but gap areas remain. Though funding in this portfolio is growing, continued focus and participation by the field is needed to advance rehabilitation science.

Provision of STD Services in Community Settings After the Loss and Return of State Funding to Support Service Provision: Observations From Select Providers in Massachusetts, 2010 and 2013.

CONTEXT: In 2008, the $1.2 M sexually transmitted disease (STD) services line item supporting STD clinical services by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health was eliminated, forcing the cessation of all state-supported STD service delivery. OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact on community provision of STD services after the elimination of state funds supporting STD service provision. DESIGN AND SETTING: Rapid ethnographic assessments were conducted in May 2010 and September 2013 to better understand the impact of budget cuts on STD services in Massachusetts. The rapid ethnographic assessment teams identified key informants through Massachusetts's STD and human immunodeficiency virus programs. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty providers/clinic administrators in 19 sites (15 unique) participated in a semistructured interview (community health centers [n = 10; 53%], hospitals [n = 4; 21%], and other clinical settings [n = 5; 26%]). RESULTS: Results clustered under 3 themes: financial stability of agencies/clinics, the role insurance played in the provision of STD care, and perceived clinic capacity to offer appropriate STD services. Clinics faced hard choices about whether to provide care to patients or refer elsewhere patients who were unable or unwilling to use insurance. Clinics that decided to see patients regardless of ability to pay often found themselves absorbing costs that were then passed along to their parent agency; the difficulty and financial strain incurred by a clinic's parent agency by providing STD services without support by state grant dollars emerged as a primary concern. Meeting patient demand with staff with appropriate training and expertise remained a concern. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of public health by private health care providers may increase concern among some community provision sites about the sustainability of service provision absent external funds, either from the state or from the third-party billing. Resource constraints may be felt across clinic operations. Provision of public health in the for-profit health system involves close consideration of resources, including those: leveraged, used to provide uncompensated care, or available for collection through third-party billing.

The Case for Public Financing of Environmental Common Goods for Health.

Safeguarding the continued existence of humanity requires building societies that cause minimal disruptions of the essential planetary systems that support life. While major successes have been achieved in improving health in recent decades, threats from the environment may undermine these gains, particularly among vulnerable populations and communities. In this article, we review the rationale for governments to invest in environmental Common Goods for Health (CGH) and identify functions that qualify as such, including interventions to improve air quality, develop sustainable food systems, preserve biodiversity, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and encourage carbon sinks. Exploratory empirical analyses reveal that public spending on environmental goods does not crowd out public spending on health. Additionally, we find that improved governance is associated with better performance in environmental health outcomes, while the degrees of people's participation in the political system together with voice and accountability are positively associated with performance in ambient air quality and biodiversity/habitat. We provide a list of functions that should be prioritized by governments across different sectors, and present preliminary costing of environmental CGH. As shown by the costing estimates presented here, these actions need not be especially expensive. Indeed, they are potentially cost-saving. The paper concludes with case examples of national governments that have successfully prioritized and financed environmental CGH. Because societal preferences may vary across time, government leaders seeking to protect the health of future generations must look beyond electoral cycles to enact policies that protect the environment and finance environmental CGH.

When Do Governments Support Common Goods for Health? Four Cases on Surveillance, Traffic Congestion, Road Safety, and Air Pollution.

Common goods such as air, water, climate, and other resources shared by all humanity are under increasing pressure from growing population and advancing globalization of the world economy. Safeguarding these resources is generally considered a government responsibility, as common goods are vulnerable to market failure. However, governments do not always fulfill this role, and face many challenges in doing so. This observation-that governments only sometimes address common goods problems-informs the central question of this paper: when do governments act in support of common goods? We structure our inquiry using a framework derived from three theories of agenda setting, emphasizing problem perception, the role of actors and collective action patterns, strategies and policies, and catalyzing circumstances. We used a poll of experts to identify important common goods for health: disease surveillance, environmental protection, and accountability. We then chose four historical cases for analysis: the establishment of the Epidemic Intelligence Service in the US, transport planning in London, road safety in Argentina, and air quality control in urban India. Our analysis of the collective evidence of these cases suggests that decisions to advance government action on common goods require a concisely articulated problem, a well-defined strategy for addressing the problem, and leadership backed by at least a few important groups willing to cooperate. Our cases reveal a variety of collective action patterns, suggesting that there are many routes to success. We consider that the timing of an intervention in support of common goods depends on favorable circumstances, which can include a catalyzing event but does not necessarily require one.

Financing Common Goods for Health: Core Government Functions in Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management.

In the absence of good data on the costs and comparative benefits from investing in health emergency and disaster risk management (EDRM), governments have been reluctant to invest adequately in systems to reduce the risks and consequences of emergencies and disasters. Yet they spend heavily on their response. We describe a set of key functional areas for investment and action in health EDRM, and calculate the costs needed to establish and operate basic health EDRM services in low- and middle-income countries, focusing on management of epidemics and disasters from natural hazards.We find that health EDRM costs are affordable for most governments. They range from an additional 4.33 USD capital and 4.16 USD annual recurrent costs per capita in low-income countries to 1.35 USD capital to 1.41 USD recurrent costs in upper middle-income countries. These costs pale in comparison to the costs of not acting-the direct and indirect costs of epidemics and other emergencies from natural hazards are more than 20-fold higher.We also examine options for the institutional arrangements needed to design and implement health EDRM. We discuss the need for creating adaptive institutions, strengthening capacities of countries, communities and health systems for managing risks of emergencies, using "all-of-society" and "all-of-state institutions" approaches, and applying lessons about rules and regulations, behavioral norms, and organizational structures to better implement health EDRM. The economic and social value, and the feasibility of institutional options for implementing health EDRM systems should compel governments to invest in these common goods for health that strengthen national health security.

Active labour market policies for people with disabilities in receipt of public income benefits: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Active labour market policies (ALMP) are used in advanced welfare states to support transitions to work for people who are unemployed or underemployed, including people with disabilities (PWD) in receipt of means-tested disability income support. OBJECTIVE: This study explores the nature, strength, and limitations of ALMP across advanced welfare states (ALMP) for people with disabilities (PWD) in receipt of income benefits from social assistance programs. METHODS: Following the eight steps of a scoping study, we identified 21 documents through a scan of eight databases and consultation with key informants. The majority of these documents are scholarly publications including seven literature reviews, two program evaluations, four social policy analyses, and two longitudinal studies. RESULTS: We extracted key findings related to delivery of labour (re)entry interventions for people with disabilities. Six themes are identified that discuss these ALMP features: 1) welfare ideology and the role of citizenship; 2) conditionality of benefits; 3) work capacity and the need for an appropriate definition of disability; 4) the politics of employment outcomes for PWD; 5) the missing elements of a successful ALMP; and 6) moving beyond ALMP. The findings indicate that while various approaches are used in reintegrating PWD into mainstream employment, there are significant limitations that curtail the impact of these policies. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of welfare regime, no welfare state provides a policy mix that results in long-term employment success for PWD in receipt of means-tested income benefits.

The daily routine of nurses in rural areas in the Family Health Strategy.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the daily work of rural Family Health Strategy (FHS) nurses. METHOD: a qualitative, descriptive and exploratory research. The data were collected with eleven rural nurses of the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba State, through semi-structured interviews, between January and March of 2017, using Content Analysis. RESULTS: rural nurses have a strong relationship with the population. However, they reveal a daily work with various organizational barriers that range from the team displacement to the workplace to the operationalization of health actions, which are mediated by the characteristics of rurality. Some of these barriers can be remedied by a more proactive action from the management. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: conditioned by the characteristics of rurality, the differentiated dynamics work reveal weaknesses in the quality of nursing care and lower effectiveness of the FHS.

The daily routine of nurses in rural areas in the Family Health Strategy / El cotidiano de enfermeros en áreas rurales en la Estrategia Salud de la Familia / O cotidiano de enfermeiros em áreas rurais na estratégia saúde da família

ABSTRACT Objective: to analyze the daily work of rural Family Health Strategy (FHS) nurses. Method: a qualitative, descriptive and exploratory research. The data were collected with eleven rural nurses of the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba State, through semi-structured interviews, between January and March of 2017, using Content Analysis. Results: rural nurses have a strong relationship with the population. However, they reveal a daily work with various organizational barriers that range from the team displacement to the workplace to the operationalization of health actions, which are mediated by the characteristics of rurality. Some of these barriers can be remedied by a more proactive action from the management. Final considerations: conditioned by the characteristics of rurality, the differentiated dynamics work reveal weaknesses in the quality of nursing care and lower effectiveness of the FHS.

RESUMEN Objetivo: analizar el cotidiano de trabajo de enfermeros de la Estrategia Salud de la Familia (ESF) que actúan en áreas rurales. Método: investigación cualitativa, descriptiva-exploratoria. Los datos fueron recolectados con once enfermeros del área rural del municipio de Campina Grande-PB, a través de entrevistas semiestructuradas, entre enero y marzo de 2017, con análisis a partir del Análisis de Contenido. Resultados: los enfermeros de las áreas rurales tienen relación de vínculo intensa con la población. Sin embargo, revelan un cotidiano de trabajo con varias barreras organizacionales que van desde el desplazamiento del equipo al lugar de trabajo a la operacionalización de las acciones de salud, siendo estas mediadas por las características de la ruralidad. Algunas de esas barreras pueden ser sanadas por la acción más propositiva de la gestión. Consideraciones finales: la dinámica de trabajo diferenciada, condicionada por las características propias de la ruralidad, revelan fragilidades en la calidad de la asistencia de enfermería y menor efectividad de la ESF.

RESUMO Objetivo: analisar o cotidiano de trabalho de enfermeiros da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) que atuam em áreas rurais. Método: pesquisa qualitativa, descritiva-exploratória. Os dados foram coletados com onze enfermeiros da área rural do município de Campina Grande-PB, por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas, entre janeiro e março de 2017, com análise a partir da técnica de Análise de Conteúdo. Resultados: os enfermeiros das áreas rurais têm relação de vínculo intensa com a população, no entanto, revelam um cotidiano de trabalho com várias barreiras organizacionais que vão desde o deslocamento da equipe ao local de trabalho à operacionalização das ações de saúde, sendo essas mediadas pelas características da ruralidade. Algumas dessas barreiras podem ser sanadas pela ação mais propositiva da gestão. Considerações finais: a dinâmica de trabalho diferenciada, condicionada pelas características próprias da ruralidade, revelam fragilidades na qualidade da assistência de enfermagem e menor efetividade da ESF.

What Else Is Needed in the Korean Government's Master Plan for People With Developmental Disabilities?

On September 12, 2018, President Jae-In Moon announced the Comprehensive Plan for Lifelong Care for People with Developmental Disabilities, with representatives from the associated government branches (Ministry of Health and Welfare, Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Employment and Labor) in attendance. The goals of this plan are to provide health, medical, rehabilitative, special education, and social welfare services according to the life-stages of the affected individuals; to reduce parental pressure; to promote social interventions; and to enhance community-level participation in order to create a 'welfare society in harmony.' However, in order for the plan to succeed, additional efforts must be made in the following areas. First, an epidemiological survey is needed to understand the scale, prevalence, and incidence of developmental disabilities and to establish an evidence base to support policy development. Second, accurate definitions of developmental disabilities must be established in order to avoid policy discrimination based on impairment type and age. Third, personal evaluations to assess disabled individuals' unmet needs and customized service designs to deliver those needs are required. Fourth, the plan must fulfill the goals of accessibility and fairness that the government intends to provide. Fifth, the government should consider an integrated financial support system and to propose a detailed plan for monetary distributions. Finally, an integrated system that links health, medical, employment, educational, and welfare services must be constructed.